Lurker > Master Moltar

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Moltar Status: Property of SuperNiceDog
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m reporting in

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Guest conspiracy strikes again!

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Well, that wraps up another successful Contest Analysis Crew. We made it!

First, I want to say thanks to all the regulars, Lopen, Leon, AKJ, Kleenex, and Dante, for writing about this contest with me. No matter how uninteresting it ended up being for the most part, you guys definitely did your best to liven it up with amusing write-ups and comments.

I also want to say thanks to all the Guests, as well as Ngamer and Kotetsu, for also providing their match write-ups and giving everyone else even more to think about. You guys were great about getting your write-ups in for the most part, and while there weren't any crazy guest upsets that panned out, there's always next time!

Last, but certainly not least, I want to thank the readers, because the Crew wouldn't be where it is today (if we even are somewhere) without you guys. We hope that we brought you at least some entertainment with our analyses, and we can't wait to bring you more good stuff next contest.



Also no thanks to SBAllen for this bad contest though I guess giving Ganondorf a championship is okay just give us a real contest with a good bracket already thanks.

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Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 50.01% 31513
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 49.99% 31503
TOTAL VOTES 63016

Mario vs. Bowser 42.28% 23507
Link vs. Ganondorf 57.72% 32091
TOTAL VOTES 55598



Crew Predictions - 63/64 - Our best contest yet!! Only match we got wrong was Trainers/Fighters

What Happened: One of our closest matches ever, followed by a predictable final.

Why it Happened: Red/Blue are strong, and combined with rallying against an easy target like FF7, they were able to barely squeeze out a victory. Then, Mario/Bowser looked pretty good against Zelda for once. Maybe it was because of the format, or maybe it was because people are tired of LAW.

Now let's get this over with so we can put this awful contest (except the winner, praise Ganondorf) behind us



Crew Prediction Challenge - Just as planned

Moltar - 63
Leon - 61
Guest - 60
AKJ - 60
Kleenex - 59
Dante - 59
Lopen - 57



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Dante's fill-in gets the point for Red/Blue, Lopen gets the point for Link/Ganon. That doesn't really matter though because Leon easily won.

Leon - 15
Moltar - 11
Lopen - 10
Guest - 8 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 2)
Kleenex - 7.5
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 6



Crew Prediction Challenge Winners

Spring Contest 2005 - Moltar, Soul, Outback, Inviso (4-way tie)
Summer Contest 2005 - Soul
Spring Contest 2006 - Soul
Summer Contest 2006 - Moltar
Character Battle VI - Guest
Character Battle VII - Yoblazer
Best Game Ever 2 - Transience
Character Battle VIII - Moltar, Ngamer, Kleenex, Red Sox (4-way tie)
Game of the Decade - Transience
Rivalry Rumble - Moltar

Crew Accuracy Challenge Winners

Character Battle VI - Yoblazer
Character Battle VII - Yoblazer
Best Game Ever 2 - Heroic Mario
Character Battle VIII - Moltar
Game of the Decade - Guest
Rivalry Rumble - Leon

Congrats to the new Crew Prediction Champion, Moltar, and the new Crew Accuracy Champion, Leon!

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 28%

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 60%

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MAX on Mario/Bowser > 36%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Well here we are again
It's always such a pleasure
It's really hard to think
You've lost here twice
Oh how we tried and tried
To oust you from the bracket
Under the circumstances
Bacon's been shockingly nice


You want your title?
Take it
That's what we're counting on
We used to want a loss
but
Now we only you want you gone


They were a lot like you
(Maybe not quite as strong, though)
Now poor old Cloud and Seph are fodder too
Each day they vote you up
So you can win forever
It's almost stunning this
site never tires of you


You've got your
one last
match left
That's what we're counting on
We'll let you get right to it
Now we only want you gone


So good luck here next year
Oh, did you think we meant you?
That would be funny
if it weren't so sad
Someday you'll be replaced
Bet we'd take anyone now
If we remove you maybe
These things won't be so bad


Go wreck some other contest
That's what we're counting on
You're someone else's problem
Now we only want you gone
Now we only want you gone
Now we only want you gone
(except red sox)

Kleenex's Prediction: Link with 60.00%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Well I fully expected to make some grand glorious final post here, but then the clutch went out on my truck in the middle of my move and I was stranded on the highway and I didn't make it home with my family for christmas so they went on without me and I'm without computer and my cell phone won't work and I had to use all my graduation money to tow the truck and the one person who's been helping me, gamerpanda, had her car broken into and her own computer among other things stolen

Merry Christmas

I blame Link for all this.

AKJ predix Link > Mario with 62.22%



Dante’s Analysis

Here we are - the true sign of 2011 Gamefaqs. The voters (however few of them there are!) Have determined that Mario, Bowser, Link, and Ganondorf are all worthy contenders for a final match.

Which is all fine and dandy, but Link trumps them all. I mean, its freakin link. What more do you want? I know Lopen is probably going to back Mario, but thats entirely his desire for an upset. We all know Link is pull through, and honestly it won't be that close.

I'd like to thank all my fans for following me on my initial run of the crew - I never would have gotten this spot without you! I hope I'll see you all again next yea- wait what do you mean I'm fired

Winner - Link.Ganondorf - 63.63%



Crew Consensus: Long live ZeldaFAQs

Lopen’s Analysis

The upset gods demand a sacrifice. With Pokemon's performance against Cloud and Seph yesterday, we now have the omens in place. lol x-stats are going to tell you that Link vs Ganondorf wins with like 52%. Then you're going to adjust for your SFF and automatically assume Link comes out on top of that, and you're gonna set the percen-- WRONG.

Mario, man, Mario. Dude was SFFing before we even knew how to spam acronyms. Reflect on your childhood... your sensations... your emotions... time... goddammit FF8. My point is that Mario vs Bowser has been relevant longer than Link vs Ganon. Who the hell played the original Legend of Zelda and talked about Ganon? No one, man. That cryptic old man who made veiled threats like "SPECTACLE ROCK IS AN ENTRANCE TO DEATH" and attempted con you with "LET'S MAKE MONEY MAKING GAME"-- that guy was your rival, back in those days. Who the hell is dodongo and why do I care about how he feels about smoking. All an elaborate ruse to thwart your plans to find gear and stuff. Goddamn old man. Point is bacon wasn't even on the menu yet, not till the later games like Ocarina of Time where he became more prominent. Bowser, however, has been a vital piece of the Mario puzzle since the dawn of time. You're chasing him through castles and he's always one step ahead of you, being in a different castle. It's deep, man, almost Pokemon Trainer Rivalry deep.

Okay, well, I'm just rambling because this contest bores me but I can begrudingly look at past matches-- it's not all Poketrainers. Compare Mario/Sonic and Link/Mega Man. Close-- and I think the smart money is on Sonic/Buttnik being the stronger rivalry there. Mario's been just as big a behemoth as Link this contest. All he needs to do is not get SFFed and get a little push. And given he and the enemy are of close strength, I don't see why this won't happen. Remember last time Mario was in a match with someone on the Nintendo hierarchy that looked to be slightly stronger indirectly? Oh yeah, dude munched on some shrooms and crushed that robot Metroid under his heel. Mario vs Bowser and Link vs Ganon are not Mario and Link. SFF favors the strong by default, this is why Link has beaten Mario severely in the past. Now? They are essentially equal and you have to go back to your IT'S FREAKING MARIO well to find the answers as to which way the SFF will fall. And answers you will find, written conveniently on the side of the aptly named well.

This is our last hope. People demand a change. They fiend for a change. One upset they say. The sentiment exists beyond b8. Mario will bring us that change. The powers that be, the bracket overlords, they will try and stop it. But they cannot. The wave has already become too strong. Now the so called hero of time must kneel. THIS TIME, LOPEN HITS. GET HYPE.

Lopen's prediction:
Mario vs Bowser with 57.18%



Leon’s Analysis

Cloud/Sephiroth couldn’t get anywhere close to Link/Ganondorf, and you think a Nintendo entry will? No way. Even if Mario/Bowser is stronger than Cloud/Seph (which I won’t rule out), Nintendo will always bow before the LAW when push comes to shove. The best thing out this match is that it means this contest is finally over.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 64.57%

Finals: Round 6 - Match 63 – (1) Mario/Bowser vs. (1) Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Analysis

lol

Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 60%

???: Wait, is that really it?

Moltar: Huh? Who said that? Oh hey, look who it is everyone. It’s Billy the Casual Bracketmaker! How’s it going, Billy? Did you enjoy the contest.

Billy: I’m okay, but this contest wasn’t. It was so easy too, even my bracket was mostly correct for once!

Moltar: Yeah, I hear you. So what do you think about the final match?

Billy: Link always wins! He’s beaten Mario every time in the past, so I don’t see him losing now!

Moltar: I agree! Mario could overperform due to the format or it being the finals or based off the results of this third place match today, but Link shouldn’t have any problem winning based on what we’ve seen in the past.

Billy: That’s not why I’m here though. I want to know...where’s the fun write-ups?

Moltar: Huh? Well, I have been pretty busy this contest. It’s not like I meant to only do short, yet serious write-ups.

DK: Yeah dawg whutsup wit dat? Didn’t even let ya homie promote his new album.

Moltar: Yeah yeah, I apologize to all my recurring characters, but...there is one thing I can do.

Billy: Oh boy, what is it!

Moltar: It...it will be my greatest analysis ever! And I will call it...

~Ganondorf’s Road to Victory~

In the history of GameFAQs contests, there have been hundreds of participants, but there have only been a handful of winners. Link, Cloud, Mario, these characters rose above the rest of the field and displayed that they had what it takes to become champions. Today, a new name will join these elite contest characters, and his name is Ganondorf.

It has been a long and challenging road for the Gerudo King. Since 2003, he has fought to be the one to rule them all, but each year, he has fallen short. In his first match in his debut year, Ganon had a match with Square icon, Tidus. In a hard-fought match, Ganondorf stood triumphant at the end. Then, he saw that Link would be his opponent in Round 3, and therefore allowed himself to be beat by Magus in order to make himself look amazing in the extrapolated stats.

Next year, after victory in an easy fight with Alucard, Ganondorf decided that he didn’t need to waste his time fighting Link and encouraged supporters of the Hyrule Hero to vote for him. He knew he would have his time.

In 2005, he came closer to the title than ever before, advancing all the way to the finals of the Villains Contest. Then, Ganondorf realized that the villains contest sucked, and therefore deserved a champion of the same quality. Therefore, he gave Sephiroth the crown. A few months later, after beating up some more Square losers like Yuna and Auron, because that is what he does best, he let Samus beat him because he respected her too much.

In 2007 and 2008, Ganondorf competed, but didn’t really care because he knew four-ways were a joke format and not befitting for a legitimate winner like himself. Then 2010 came along, and Ganondorf, after suffering an injury dealing with both the strongest psychic Pokemon and a ruthless street fighter, was unable to fairly compete with Sonic and lost.

Now we have reached 2011 and the Rivalry Rumble, and now Ganondorf has decided it is his time. He has put aside all of his differences with his rival, Link, and will carry him to a GameFAQs Contest Championship. After 5 dominating performances, it is no question who the strongest character on this website is. Nothing can beat him. No character can stop him. He is objectively the greatest video game character in existence.

He is your 2011 Rivalry Rumble Champion.

<u>Ganondorf</u>

Mario vs. Bowser 55.64% 28859
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 44.36% 23011
TOTAL VOTES 51870

Link vs. Ganondorf 58.26% 34370
Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 41.74% 24625
TOTAL VOTES 58995


Crew Predictions - 61/62

What Happened: Mario stops the Trainers, Zelda puts a big beating on FF7

Why it Happened: Nintendo hierarchy, learn it and love it. Mario is higher than Pokemon, so that's why it won. FF7 has also gotten weaker, resulting in an easy win for Link/Ganon

What will Happen: Zelda > Mario on that Nintendo hierarchy, but any crazy thing can happen in the finals.



Crew Prediction Challenge - lol kleenex

Moltar - 62
Leon - 60
Guest - 59
AKJ - 58
Kleenex - 57
Dante - 57
Lopen - 55



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Mario/Bowser, Dante gets the point for Link/Ganon.

Leon - 15
Moltar - 11
Lopen - 9
Guest - 8 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 2)
Kleenex - 7.5
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 5

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best edition

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*wakes up*

*goes onto gamefaqs and checks the poll*

...

...



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Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 53%
Link vs. Ganondorf - 64%

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MAX on Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue > 46%

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 54.22%

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Lopen’s Analysis

The easiest way to try and get a feel for the strength of these two teams is to go through Cloud and Seph getting 62% on Solid/Liquid Snake and the Trainers getting 60% on Samus/Street Fighter. Some would think that that gives the advantage to the FF guys, but I don't agree. Considering that FF7 has SFFed MGS in the past, and that Solid/Liquid are mostly rooted to the original MGS, I'm not sure Cloud and Seph are as strong as that 62% would indicate. I'm also kinda skeptical Solid and Liquid Snake are that strong in the first place, because they again, are mostly tied to MGS1. Would I consider Ryu vs Ken or Samus vs Ridley over Solid vs Liquid? You bet I would. I'd take it in Ryu vs Ken's case. And at the very least, I bet any of those would be a close match.

So forget the MOMENTUM and crap (after Trainers got like 44% on Mario I'm not even convinced that happened this contest)-- Pokemon Trainers could very well just be outright stronger than Cloud vs Sephiroth. And I think they will be, sadly, and comfortably. If nothing else, even if this one is close the Pokemon will PULL IT OUT IN A MIRACLE CLUTCH. Because if the match is debatable, much like the ugly bastard children of John McClane, Pokemon will find a way.

Lopen's prediction:
ACCURSED POKEMON with 55.85%



Leon’s Analysis

While Cloud/Sephiroth is getting embarrassed today, I think it’s saying a lot more about Link’s strength than Cloud/Seph’s weakness. I don’t see the Trainers winning this one. It would put Mario way too close to Link and give them a bigger win over Cloud/Seph than I would be willing to give him.

That being said, that’s assuming these results are transitive and nothing stupid happens, but you never know. The early vote should be fun, at least.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth with 56.01%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Man, I don't care about this match. Or the next one, really. Checked out of this contest. Also there's gonna be a bad result tonight.

Kleenex's Prediction: Pokemon with 52.34%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

This is one of Bacon's "please stop saying worst contest ever" ideas like the final match betting, right? Well I'll bite, this is at least better than all the other matches recently. I'd have preferred to see Cloud vs Mario in the actual bracket, but oh well!

So Mario would devastate Cloud these days, and I have a good feeling the Trainers are close enough to Mario that they'll take this here. Ugh, Tranny's depressing topic has really taken the wind out of my contest sails. brb crawling into a corner and crying myself to sleep

AKJ predix Red vs Blue with 52.05%



Crew Consensus: Pokemon Trainers beat Cloud/Seph, long live NintendoFAQs

Third Place: Match 63 – (1) Red/Blue vs. (1) Cloud/Sephiroth

Moltar’s Analysis

Red/Blue
Round 1 - 76.92% vs. Raynor/Kerrigan
Round 2 - 77.96% vs. Luigi/Waluigi
Round 3 - 60.04% vs. Ryu/Ken
Round 4 - 60.57% vs. Samus/Ridley
Round 5 - 44.36% vs. Mario/Bowser

Mario once again puts down the Pokemon

Cloud/Sephiroth
Round 1 - 76.64% vs. Lloyd/Kratos
Round 2 - 76.78% vs. Kratos/Zeus
Round 3 - 62.12% vs. Snake/Liquid
Round 4 - 76.15% vs. Squall/Seifer
Round 5 - ~42.30% vs. Link/Ganondorf

Zelda once again puts down FF7

Well this is nice. We were due for a completely boring and uninteresting final stretch, but this could be this contest’s last hope at producing an interesting upset. Not gonna lie, it would kind of suck to get this thrown together last minute match wrong after going 62/62. Then again, while Red/Blue were stomping Ryu/Ken, I did say that I wanted to see this match, so I guess I can’t complain.

Cloud/Seph are the favorites here. Despite getting godstomped by god himself today, FF7 is still known as the second strongest entity on this site. This match right here is going to prove whether or not they still deserve that title. Cloud/Seph had a lucky path facing off against 3 PlayStation series they could overperform against in GoW, MGS and FF8. Link/Ganon are exposing them hard today, but that could also be because Zelda is stronger now due to the lower vote totals and Skyward Sword. If that’s the case, then Cloud/Seph should easily beat a team that couldn’t even manage 45% on Mario.

However, I don’t think this is going to be an easy win for FF7. Yes, you could look at today’s match as the Zelda series vs. FF7, which is why Link/Ganon look good, but in a straight up match between RBY vs. FF7, I don’t think FF7 takes that as easily as some people would think. Red/Blue have looked great in this contest, and we all know when it’s this late in the contest, any crazy upset could happen.

Still, playing it safe has kept me perfect so far, so I’m going to side with FF7 here. FF7 alone still does better against Zelda than Pokemon has ever done, so there’s no reason for me to doubt that Cloud/Seph aren’t stronger. I do think this match is going to be fairly close though, as Pokemon’s early vote combined with FF7’s early vote + people desperate for some kind of crazy result will mean that Pokemon is going to look amazing early. They might be able to ride that momentum for most of the day too, but the big question is if they can ride it for all 24 hours. I’ll say no, but not much is going to surprise me here.

Moltar’s Bracket: N/A

Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud/Sephiroth - 52%

From: Achromatic | #310
Can I be the guest for the finals?

yes

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who

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Oh I think I forgot to assign a guest to tonight's match. I guess Kotetsu's will be fine though.

Also need one final guest to do the finals

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From: X_Dante_X | #293
I'm going to have that question mark forever now aren't I

whoops?

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Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm more excited for this match than I should probably be. Link vs. Cloud has happened more times in these contests than any other matchup, at least once a year since 2003, and only once has Cloud been able to actually win. Could that change this today? Well, maybe. Logic would dictate that Cloud and Sephiroth combined would be stronger than Link and Ganondorf combined. And Cloud has his best performance against Link last year since he actually won in 2003. Certainly, this is the best chance anyone has ever had at beating Link shy of being a Tetromino.

What does Link have on his side? Well, for one, he's Link. Link, who triples other Noble Niners, wins six out of eight GameFAQs character battles, and is backed by an army of DROOOOOOOOOONES. Also a Zelda game came out a month ago. That last bit is probably particularly damning, though it might be worth noting that Skyward Sword wasn't able to break the stranglehold Skyrim has on the site currently. Probably not though.

Cloud and Sephiroth have a slim chance here. It's not a good one, but it's there. And if they do win, it'll make for a much more interesting final than watching Link skewer Mario for the fourth or fifth time. Plus it would be boring for the crew to have a clean Link sweep.

Kleenex's Prediction: Cloud vs. Sephiroth with 51.67%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I was going to make a "And here we are at the final match" joke but I realized that'd be totally stale. So with that in mind I bet at least 2 Crew members will make the joke, and one of them will be Dante.

But really, remember when this would've been a match? In another time when Link and Cloud were "about even" the idea of having Cloud AND Sephiroth teamed up would definitely have made people think of the upset. I mean what does Ganondorf bring anyway? Have this match in 2005 or so and things would be so different, so much more exciting...

Instead we know so much about contest strength and trends we already know before seeing it that Cloud has absolutely no chance here. Link is so strong he'd win without Ganondorf in the poll. Link would win a poll that was just him against every other person in the contest. Anyway I'm graduating today so I won't be around, but it's kind of neat to think the entire time I've been in college (and let me tell you my "4 year" degree took a whole lot longer than that, woo Class of 2008!) "Link vs Cloud" has been the Gamefaqs Contest rivalry, and here we see it tested on my last day. Except it's not a real test and it's boring and this contest is awful. As The Show so nicely pointed out, this is definitely the worst contest we've ever had.

AKJ predix Link vs Ganondorf with 59.99%



Dante’s Analysis

Man, why isn't this the final again? I mean, it's about as debated as the final, but still!

Link wins I'd say yawn next but it'll be just as boring. so uh Yawn next contest

Winner - Link - 57.38%

Link vs. Ganondorf - 54.50%

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Max on Link/Ganondorf > 54%

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Mario vs. Bowser - 70.11%

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Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

As is the custom, no matter how dominant Link and The Legend of Zelda have been in recent contest history, FFVII is still hyped by some to pull off a miracle. This time around there was actually a reasonable argument to be made that Cloud vs. Sephiroth had every chance of pulling it off - if Cloud could pull 46.5% of the vote against Link, surely with Sephiroth and Ganondorf thrown in as rivals, there'd be every chance of Link losing?

To be fair, the FFVII duo have played their part. In 2010 Cloud got 52% against Solid Snake, but with rivals added Cloud/Seph easily broke 60%. If Ganondorf was helping Link as much as Liquid was helping Solid, then there'd be good reason for thinking this might be the year Zelda's dominance would be punctured. Indeed, Cloud/Sephiroth have looked to be in a whole different tier to their usual through the first four rounds - rather than struggling to break 70% against Captain Falcon, Marth, Chris Redfield and Ridley, they've broken 75% three times.

Unfortunately for them, Link hasn't read the script. Even writing off the tripling of Mega Man/Wily, and ignoring the brutal quintupling of Amaterasu/Orochi as SFF, they've been imperious. 77.6% against Alucard/Dracula, who won their division and seemingly have a decent rivalry boost, is not only higher than any number Cloud/Sephiroth have managed, it's 5 points better than Link managed on Alucard on his own.

Link/Ganondorf shouldn't have any problems winning here, and I think there's a chance this might be the biggest beating there's been in a Link/Cloud match yet, just because Link/Ganon has looked so strong. Still, there is an element of the unknown about this - projections and comparisons all come with big pinches of salt since there's so little known about these rivalries. Maybe we'll get one unforgettable match out of this contest after all... nah.

Link vs. Ganondorf with 53.55% of the vote.



Crew Consensus: Zelda unstoppable

Semifinals: Round 5 - Match 62 – (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (1) Cloud/Sephiroth

Moltar’s Analysis

Link/Ganondorf
Round 1 - 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan
Round 2 - 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi
Round 3 - 75.26% vs. Mega Man/Wily
Round 4 - 77.60% vs. Alucard/Dracula

Yeah these guys are pretty strong

Cloud/Sephiroth
Round 1 - 76.64% vs. Lloyd/Kratos
Round 2 - 76.78% vs. Kratos/Zeus
Round 3 - 62.12% vs. Snake/Liquid
Round 4 - 76.15% vs. Squall/Seifer

SFF is a wonderful thing, isn’t it?

Link/Cloud is usually a pretty hyped up match because Cloud is one of two regular characters strong enough to keep Link under 60%. The other guy is also in this match and his name is Sephiroth. Together, the two of them should be able to use their combined rivalry power to win, right?

Wrong, because Ganondorf is here. Ganondorf will allow for Link to pull out a guaranteed win against Cloudiroth. Zelda looks pretty untouchable at this point, especially right off the heels of Skyward Sword. This is going to go the same way Link/Cloud did 2 years ago, maybe even worse because of the new game.

Don’t doubt the drones!

Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 55%



Lopen’s Analysis

There are lots of ways to try and justify this upset, to try and make this contest cool. You can measure both teams through fodder and I'm sure some combination of stats will get you a Cloud/Sephiroth victory. Well, you know what? This contest is not cool, and there ain't gonna be any upset special from me here, because they just don't happen in this format. I mean, you'd think that since people actually care about Seph enough for him to get 45% (that's 33% more than 12% for those keeping score at home) on Cloud, and that he's stronger in the first place, that he'd add more to his team than Ganondorf and this would be an easy win due to RIVALRY FACTOR because Cloud and Seph you know, have a story. But it's not happening. Why? Because as much as I want to say people are paying attention to the format, I don't really think they are. Not really. Well, at least, not in the way we want-- rivalries don't matter for the most part. Franchises matter. Age matters. And Zelda series beats Final Fantasy series (and even more easily beats FF7), so thusly Cloud and Sephiroth won't be gaining any ground here. Link wins his easiest bout with Cloud yet.

I'd love to be wrong, though. I certainly don't think that past results for the two teams are as damning for Cloud and Seph as some do-- and just looking at their matches my confidence would not waver. But... looking at the results of the contest as a whole, instead of Clinkeroth in a vacuum, it gets really hard to justify taking them here.

(Well, love might be strong-- even Link losing can't really save this contest, but it'd be a token gesture at least!)

Lopen's prediction:
Link vs Ganondorf with 60.40% (I am of course safe, since the cage suspects will be taking Cloud)



Leon’s Analysis

As much as red sox will try to claim otherwise, I haven’t seen anything that tells me Link/Ganondorf doesn’t win this. Sephiroth hasn’t added as much to Cloud as we would have expected/hoped for them to win, while Ganondorf actually seems to have added a decent bit of strength to Link. This team is drastically outdoing Link’s projections on these characters from the 2010 stats. It hasn’t even been close. I doubt this one’s all that close either.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 54.45%

Link vs. Ganondorf 77.6% 41970
Alucard vs. Dracula 22.4% 12118
TOTAL VOTES 54088

Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 76.15% 38441
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 23.85% 12038
TOTAL VOTES 50479


Crew Predictions - 59/60

What Happened: Beatdowns and SFF blowouts

Why it Happened: Alucard barely won a weak division, and FF7 SFFed FF8

What will Happen: Zelda > FF7



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy points

Moltar - 60
Leon - 58
Guest - 57
AKJ - 56
Kleenex - 55
Dante - 55
Lopen - 53



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Link/Ganon, Leon gets the point for Cloud/Seph.

Leon - 15
Moltar - 10
Lopen - 9
Guest - 8 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 2)
Kleenex - 7.5
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 4

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Max on Mario/Bowser > 55.5%

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Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 71.54%

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Dante’s? Analysis

I loooooove Pokemon!!! I see Charizard and I just go *^___^*!!! He breathes fire and looks so cute and I just want to snuggle him! Yeah, Bowser did the whole fire-breathing thing first, but Bowser's all scaly with spikes on his back for no reason other than to try and look intimidating. Too bad he opened his mouth in Super Mario RPG and proved he was a moron.

But Charizard? The only thing coming out of his mouth is god damned fire. Bowser was like that once before he teamed up with Mario because he was sick of losing. What a punk. At least try and not be incompetent for once. Charizard can solo teams faster than you can say "your princess is in another castle." Speaking of which, how did Bowser get eight castles? Again, he's a punk.

Anyway, Charizard isn't in this match. He doesn't need to be. There are 150 other Pokemon ready to show up and torture Mario. Mario's probably weak against fighting types because all he can do is jump. Mario jumps and Bowser spits some non-threatening fire. This is supposed to beat Red vs. Blue? Two characters defined by the word rival? In a rivalry contest?

Nah, Pokemon's got this. 'cause they're cute, yo.

Dante's prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red / Pokemon Trainer Blue with 57.77%



Guest’s Analysis - Inceptlon

X-Stats, trainers lose. Contest Performance stats,trainers lose. That Clutch Feeling.... Trainers Win. Momentum and a dire need for a upset this contest will push the trainers through!

Inceptlon's prediction: Pokemon Trainers Red Vs Blue- 52.80%


Crew Consensus: Dante? and Guest are going with the upset, but everyone else is sticking with Mario.

Leon’s Analysis

While Red/Blue have looked good throughout this contest, I think their run ends here. Mario/Bowser are a tad out of their league. This is basically this contest’s version of Super Mario Bros./Super Smash Bros. from the Series Contest, although I don’t think Mario/Bowser put up 60% here or anything. I don’t really think Red/Blue have any sort of bandwagon going on at this point, and that’s what they’ll need to win. They haven’t pulled any major upsets, and 1/3 of bracketmakers have them getting here. For as good as Red/Blue have looked, Mario/Bowser have looked terrific themselves. I honestly don’t even think X/Zero had very much SFF. They’re just that strong here. 60% on Samus and 60% on the Fighters doesn’t match that.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mario vs. Bowser with 57.15%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Don't care about this match, let's get to tomorrow already. I actually do have a somewhat uneasy feeling about this match, but I hope it's just a false alarm. Mario has looked too good all contest to drop this. Not to say that Pokemon hasn't looked good thus far either, because it has. But this feels like the first time the trainers don't run into some kinda gimped rivalry dragged down by a weak second half. Ryu and Ken aside, of course, but they just might not have been that strong in the first place. ANYWAY. It's Mario Time.

Kleenex's Prediction: Mario vs. Bowser with 54.67%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I really, really wish Trainers had a shot here. I even considered going with the Trainers upset against all sense but I'd blow the chance to finish a point ahead of Kleenex, so that's no good. Unfortunately we know exactly what happens when a hot Pokemon upset-special comes face to face with Mario at the end of the contest, and just like Charizard, Charizard with people next to him will crumble today.

So instead of talking about the match, let's talk about these new Oreo "Triple Doubles." I had to buy it because I'm a huge Girl Talk fan. It's like a regular Oreo, then on top of it there's a layer of chocolate creme and another oreo cookie on top of that. It's absolute madness. I know there are like 15 different types of Oreos now (I was actually trying to buy the traditionals and literally couldn't find them amidst the peanut butter, mint, double stuf, triple stuf, and others) but these are definitely worth checking out if you're in the prepacked cookie mood. I didn't get to try them with Milk, since I'm all out at the moment, but I assume they're every bit as good as a normal Oreo in milk!


AKJ predix Mario vs Bowser with 56.08%

Semifinals: Round 5 - Match 61 – (1) Mario/Bowser vs. (1) Red/Blue

Moltar’s Analysis

Mario/Bowser
Round 1 - 85.36% vs. Jim/Butt
Round 2 - 80.47% vs. Ike/BK
Round 3 - 70.58% vs. Sonic/Robotnik
Round 4 - 66.66% vs. X/Zero

At least MMX held up better than Sonic

Red/Blue
Round 1 - 76.92% vs. Raynor/Kerrigan
Round 2 - 77.96% vs. Luigi/Waluigi
Round 3 - 60.04% vs. Ryu/Ken
Round 4 - 60.57% vs. Samus/Ridley

Samus/Ridley vs. Ryu/Ken, who ya got?

Once again, Pokemon goes on a rampage through the bracket, and once again, it’s up to Mario to put it down. In 2010, even a rallied-up, hyped-up, and powered-up Charizard couldn’t beat Mario. Now, we’ve got the rivalry matters of Mario/Bowser against Red/Blue, who really don’t look to be benefitting from any sort of poke-rally power this time.

This should be an easy win for Mario. Red/Blue looked good, and while their performance against Samus/Ridley was good overall, they needed to do much better to look like they wanted to challenge a team that doubled MMX and got 70% on Sonic.

At best, Pokemon will probably avoid getting SFFed here, so they should do respectably.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario/Bowser

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario/Bowser - 56%



Lopen’s Analysis

This contest is finally over, thank gawd, but it's possible it ends with a bang. Unlike the last round I could see any one of the remaining matches going the other way. Some are less likely than others, but I could actually see any one of these last four winning the whole thing with a probability of uh... more than 5%?

Anyway, most people will tell you this about. It's pretty clear Mario and Bowser are stronger from previous rounds, and they should be higher on the pecking order. I don't personally see momentum playing a part because not enough people give a damn about this contest.

The one concern I have about this match, other than the off the wall shot of momentum being a factor, is that a lot of casuals have been coming on the board and saying that Mario/Bowser isn't a rivalry... which amusingly, is one of the worst pairings in the bracket to make this claim for, but yeah. I think your typical voter is too dense to even consider what the difference between a rival and an adversary is, and among those that do I would assume most get that Mario/Bowser is a rivalry. But if Mario/Bowser are say only going to win by Mario/Charizard levels, and this is a widespread problem I could see it turning the match. Basically if the average voter is not completely oblivious to what a rival is, but still stupid, this could turn.

Anyway knowing this contest, if any upset happens it'll be this one, cause it's the one I don't want to happen, and the one I see as being least likely. I see this being a series contest like split in which gaps are exaggerated and Pokemon will actually do worse than Charizard did vs Mario. What does this mean? You know it.

Lopen's prediction:
Mario vs Bowser with 60.44% (Dante and/or Kleenex want to cage me with 60.41, thinks I'll go 60.42 expecting it, he goes 60.43, so I go 60.44. Game set match... or maybe I'm paranoid)

From: 3DSRage | #033
Just so everyone knows...

If I didn't "miss" that PT match, and be stupid in the froggus match after to get back in the game, Palace of Wisdom would win the team challenge. I was saying from the start that we would, but i messed it up ;-;

so disappoint in you

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oh right


Guest Sign-ups

Mario/Bowser vs. Red/Blue -

Link/Ganondorf vs. Cloud/Sephiroth -

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Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 77%

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MAX on Cloud Strife/Sephiroth > 72.5%

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 86.32%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Oh jeeze, late writing this, I hope Moltar hasn't posted analyses yet. Good thing I don't have to write much for this. Cloud and Squall have met a couple times before (I think?). Maybe it was just one. Regardless, it was a pretty bad SFF beatdown in favor of Cloud and there's no reason to think that won't happen today. This will probably be Cloud/Seph's most impressive performance all contest unless they actually beat Link.

Kleenex's Prediction: Cloud vs. Sephiroth with 75.02%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Time for Cloud to blow out Squall with 80% and fire dem warning salvos against Link. I CAN FEEL THE COMING UPSET IN THE AIR!

AKJ predix Cloud vs Sephiroth with 67.76%



Dante’s Analysis

Final Fantasy 7 versus Final Fantasy 8. You know, if we didn't have 10 years of contest history to look at, this would be a pretty sweet match. I remember back in the day, people I knew either liked 7 or 8 to death (typically whichever they played first).

Instead of focus on squalls upcoming humiliating defeat to a guy from a game released before him with hilariously bad graphics, lets focus on the good times: like when he beat Sora! Or when he beat... whoever he beat to get to sora! I'm sure Leon is very proud, and will be giving squall a heroes welcome when this is all over. I hope I'm invited to the party he'll surely throw squall I wonder if there will be any alcohol!

Winner - Cloud/Seph - 73.01% - Yeah I have absolutely no idea for percentage and I'm just throwing something down



Guest’s Analysis - GrapefruitKing

Cloud has faced Squall one on one and it certainly wasn’t pretty. Amd after Squall/Seifer almost lost to frickin’ Sora last round, I’d be very surprised to see them exceeding expectations here. Seems like people couldn’t care less about Seifer; too bad, it’s a pretty good rivalry. It’s annoying to see them being fed to Cloud, a match-up like Squall/Seifer vs. Samus/Ridley or Sub-Zero/Scorpion might’ve ended up being pretty interesting.
This SFF fest will tell us nothing about Link/Cloud, but we already know that Link wins this one quite easily. Cloud’s % should end up being between 72 and 77... tt’s all about picking where exactly. So uuuuhh

GrapefruitKing’s surprisingly accurate prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 74.86%



Crew Consensus: yay more FF7 blowouts

Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 60 – (1) Cloud/Sephiroth vs. (1) Squall/Seifer

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud/Sephiroth
Round 1 - 76.64% vs. Lloyd/Kratos
Round 2 - 76.78% vs. Kratos/Zeus
Round 3 - 62.12% vs. Snake/Liquid

Snake can’t compete with Cloud/Seph in this format

Squall/Seifer
Round 1 - 73.65% vs. Laharl/Mid-Boss
Round 2 - 66.76% vs. Siegfried/Nightmare
Round 3 - 50.69% vs. Sora/Riku

Squall beats Sora again in their closest match yet.

So Squall just had a close match with Sora, and now he has to fight Squall. This sounds like a certain 2008 match where Squall narrowly beat Sora in a four-way poll, while Cloud nearly tripled him in that same poll.

Then you put Seph on top of that, while Seifer is dead weight and...

Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud/Sephiroth

Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud/Sephiroth - 78%



Lopen’s Analysis

This is not time for foreplay. Sephiroth and Squall cannot contain themselves. They immediately whip them out to start the match. Sephiroth's massive length dwarfs Squall's from the outset, and Squall uncharacteristically experiences some shrinkage, being in awe of Sephiroth's heaving... blue bar. Sephiroth on the other hand is going to start close to full length right as he whips it out... one can only assume that he was incredibly eager for his match with Squall. Also uh... I guess at some point Cloud whips out his... weapon... with its unwieldy girth... and Seifer blushes and giggles like a Japanese schoolgirl and runs away. Now Squall is doubly humiliated.

People like me can't help but be disappointed, though. Sephiroth rising is the only joy to be had in any of his matches this contest. But you know, whatever, at least this only happened once.

(Diet contest gets diet fanfiction. Sorry. Bring back four ways. I could do so much with a four way here...)

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud vs Sephiroth with 80.03%



Leon’s Analysis

This match sucks. Why are we seeing Cloud/Squall for the third time?

That is all.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth with 76.21%

Yes

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Crew Predictions - 57/58

What Happened: Predicted results, no upsets, more blowouts, etc

Why it Happened: Because this contest sucks

What will Happen: Exactly what is expected to happen



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy points

Moltar - 58
Leon - 56
Guest - 55
AKJ - 54
Kleenex - 53
Dante - 53
Lopen - 51



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets the point for Cloud/Seph, Moltar gets the point for Squall/Seifer, Kotetsu gets the point for Mario/Bowser, Leon gets the point for Red/Blue

Leon - 14
Lopen - 9
Moltar - 9
Guest - 8 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1, Kotetsu: 2)
Kleenex - 7.5
AKJ - 6.5
Dante - 4

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Mario vs. Bowser - 55%

Link vs. Ganondorf - 53.50%

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 77%

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MAX on Link/Ganondorf (-50)

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Pokemon Trainers with 20.28%

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Applekidjosh’s Analysis

**** this ****ing ****fest of a ****y match. Seriously **** Link fans, **** Alucard fans, **** everyone ****ing involved. ****!

This is it, this is the ****iest ****fest of a **** in the entire ****ing ****-****tastic contest. This is twenty-****ing-four god**** ****ty ****ing hours of **** and none of it ****ing matters. Go take a ****ing nap.

AKJ predix Link with 75.09%



Dante’s Analysis

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boom headshot

Winner - Link/Ganondorf - 75.01%



Guest’s Analysis - Luis

And the godstomp goes ooooon, and ooooon, and on. God, Link matches are boring. Annihilate 90% of the field every contest, then have the annual, increasingly one-sided dust up with Cloud. At least Samus is putting a few haters in their pla

Quarterfinals: Round 4 - Match 59 – (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (4) Alucard/Dracula

Moltar’s Analysis

Link/Ganondorf
Round 1 - 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan
Round 2 - 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi
Round 3 - 75.26% vs. Mega Man/Wily

Link crushes Mega Man again

Alucard/Dracula
Round 1 - 63.23% vs. Shepard/Saren
Round 2 - 56.67% vs. Phoenix/Edgeworth
Round 3 - 53.25% vs. Frog/Magus

Alucard beats Magus again

So Alucard made it out of the weakest division in the bracket and his reward is getting beaten by Link...again. In 2010, Link won with 72%, and now we’ve got rivalry factor (that’s right ganon is gonna carry link’s ass to an even bigger blowout) and Skyward Sword.

Triplings in the Elite Eight what a great bracket what a great contest. Also Zelda always overperforms so I’ll go a few percent higher than that for the hell of it.

Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 77%



Lopen’s Analysis

Alucard's plan no doubt involves putting us to sleep in this match. So we can be jilted awake caught unawares by... Cloud vs Squall? Hm. Maybe not. Well, in any case-- zzzzz. Huh? Huh? Oh. Yeah. I expect Alucard to do better than Mega Man because no SFF. Yeah.

zzzzz

Lopen's prediction:
Link vs 12% on Link with 70.30%


Leon’s Analysis

This match is basically another opportunity for Link to flex his muscles and respond to the WARNING SALVO Cloud/Sephiroth fired off in their match with the Twin Snakes. Don’t panic if Link doesn’t go as high here as he did against Mega Man/Wily because there won’t be any SFF here. It’s kind of weird to think that Alucard’s division will be one of the few with “clean” X-Stats because they won’t be ruined by an SFF blowout. Anyway, we already saw Link/Alucard last year, and Link won with nearly 72% there. That sounds about right this time, too.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 73.95%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Three rounds in and Link hasn't dropped below 75% yet. Will that trend continue today? Maybe. I expect similar numbers to what Link got on Mega Man, so THE STREAK could be in jeopardy. Possibly. I suppose. I dunno. Link's gonna win, so who really cares! Come on Sunday.

Kleenex's Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 75.01%